Commentary

‘Another gain for Fine Gael as Fianna Fáil lose both of their outgoing seats’

There was a minor Constituency Commission boundary revision here with a population of 1,314 in the Kilpatrick and Newtown areas transferred into this constituency from the Kildare South constituency. However, it remained a four seat constituency.

This was another good performance by Fine Gael as its vote was up 12 points and with 1.7 quotas the party was well placed to win two seats. The long serving Bernard Durkan topped the poll and was just short of the quota on the first count. His running mate Anthony Lawlor had a more modest level of support, with 6,882 first preferences to leave him in the frame on the first count with 0.7 quotas and he went on to comfortably hold off Áine Brady for the final seat.

The Labour vote was up 12 points and with 1.5 quotas the party should have been in contention for two seats. Emmet Stagg was short of the quota on the first count and went on to comfortably take the second seat on the third count. His running mate John McGinley was outside the frame in fifth place on the first count but the gap between the Labour man and Lawlor was just too big and he was eventually eliminated at the end of the fourth count with his transfers favouring Murphy (45%) and Lawlor (22%).

This was another poor Fianna Fáil performance with their vote down 25 points and they lost both of their outgoing seats. Both outgoing deputies – Áine Brady and Michael Fitzpatrick - decided to contest and between them they got just 0.7 quotas. The division of the party vote left both candidates outside the frame on the first count and too far off the pace. Brady was in sixth place on the first count but 63% of her running mate’s transfers moved her up to fifth place but that was as good as it got and the Minister of State was well beaten in the end.

Catherine Murphy won the by-election in 2004 which was caused by the appointment of Charlie McCreevy as EU Commissioner. Murphy was a surprise loser in 2007 but made no mistake in 2011 as she was in third place on the first count with 6,911 votes and she went on to take the third seat on the final count.

The Sinn Fein vote was up three points but with just 6% Martin Kelly was in seventh place and out of contention.